Venkatesh Rao thinks that Gall's Law is much too optimistic
I agree. This is why reforming old, sluggish organizations is a fool's errand. It is much more beneficial to fork existing organizations and take them into completely new directions or rewrite from scratch.A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system.Gall’s Law is in fact much too optimistic. It is not just non-working complex systems designed from scratch that cannot be patched up. Even naturally evolved complex systems that used to work, but have now stopped working, generally cannot be patched into working order again.